Colombia holds its first-round presidential election on Sunday, May 31, 2026, to replace outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The vote caps a turbulent campaign season marked by political assassinations, the kidnapping of a senator, and deep polarization between left and right. For expats and visitors in Medellín, here is what you need to know.
Senator Cepeda (63) won the governing Historic Pact primary with 65% of the vote in October 2025. He represents continuity with the Petro government's social programs while distancing himself from some of its most controversial elements. He has led in polls since January 2026 but consistently falls short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. His running mate is indigenous senator Aida Quilcué.
Senator Valencia won the center-right primary in a landslide, defeating María Fernanda Cabal. She represents the anti-Petro establishment right and draws strong support from the business sector and traditional Antioquia conservative base — meaning Medellín leans toward her more than national polling suggests. Her core platform is public security, economic stability, and reversing Petro's labor reforms.
The Córdoba politician presents himself as an outsider who can stop the left. Some analysts see him as the only candidate capable of defeating Cepeda in a runoff, though others argue Valencia has a better path. His base is strongest outside major cities.
The former Mayor of Medellín (2004–2008) and Governor of Antioquia is running again under "Dignity and Commitment," but polls below 5% nationally. In Medellín he may perform better given his legacy of urban transformation, but a first-round path to victory is considered mathematically unlikely.
For expats and investors, the key policy differences revolve around: labor regulations (Petro-era reforms dramatically raised the minimum wage; Valencia would reverse this), foreign investment policy, and security approaches to armed groups. A Cepeda win would likely mean continuity; a Valencia or De la Espriella win would mean a sharp policy reversal favorable to business and potentially more aggressive security operations.
For day-to-day life in Medellín, either outcome is manageable. Medellín has shown political resilience across multiple national administrations. The city's mayor (Federico Gutiérrez) is conservative and has operated independently of the Petro national government regardless.
Colombia's election commissions deploy tens of thousands of security forces nationally on election day. In Medellín specifically:
As always in Colombia, stay away from protest movements regardless of their political direction, and monitor local news (El Colombiano, Telemedellín) for real-time updates on the evening of May 31.